Republican Matt Van Epps is projected to win the special election for Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District, according to CNN’s Decision Desk, averting what would have been a stunning upset and giving Democrats fresh confidence after an unexpectedly strong performance in a reliably red district.
Van Epps’ victory over Democrat Aftyn Behn allows Republicans to hold onto the seat formerly represented by Mark Green, who resigned in July for a private-sector position.
In the weeks leading up to Tuesday’s vote, GOP officials increasingly worried about the possibility of a humiliating defeat in a district President Donald Trump carried by 22 points just over a year ago. While Democrats scored major wins in last month’s gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey, flipping a Republican-held seat in Tennessee would have represented a seismic political shock.
Behn and other Democrats argued that even a tight loss would signal real momentum behind their message on rising living costs. And indeed, Van Epps was on track to win by a much smaller margin than Trump or Green did last cycle.
“Tonight isn’t the final result we hoped for, but it is the beginning of something powerful in Tennessee and across the South,” Behn told supporters at her election-night event.
Before the race was officially called, Behn told CNN’s Kaitlan Collins that the turnout itself was a sign of Democratic viability. “This proves Democrats can compete in high-turnout elections. We’re seeing extraordinarily high turnout right now in a special election.”
She added, “It’s a preview of what’s coming next year—Republicans in competitive seats facing candidates who look a lot like me. And honestly, that’s exciting.”
Turnout in the race nearly matched the 2022 midterm election and reached more than half of the 2024 level—making it the highest share in any special election this year. That surge is especially notable given the election fell on the Tuesday immediately after Thanksgiving.
The unusually high turnout likely reduced the scale of Democratic over-performance compared to the 16-point average seen in other special elections this year. Still, Behn improved on Democrats’ 2024 margins in the district by double digits.
The Democratic-aligned House Majority PAC, which funded ads supporting Behn, said the close results should be “a five-alarm fire for the GOP.”
“Tonight’s numbers make one thing clear: No House Republican should consider their seat safe next November,” spokesperson CJ Warnke said.
Van Epps, a former Army helicopter pilot and Tennessee’s former commissioner of General Services, won the Republican primary in October with endorsements from Trump and Gov. Bill Lee.
House Speaker Mike Johnson campaigned with him on Monday, and Trump called into a tele-rally urging voters to help Van Epps “do better than me” in the district.
“The Radical Left Democrats threw everything at him, including millions of dollars,” Trump posted on Truth Social. “Another great night for the Republican Party!”
Van Epps leaned heavily into his support from Trump in his victory remarks. “Running with Trump is how you win,” he told supporters.
“We’re grateful for the president’s unwavering support that powered this movement and propelled us to victory. President Trump was all in with us—that made the difference. In Congress, I’ll be all in with him.”
He also emphasized cost-of-living concerns, echoing a dominant theme in races nationwide this fall, including in the New York City mayoral race and the gubernatorial contests in Virginia and New Jersey.
“We stand with hardworking Americans. I’ll fight to lower prices, boost paychecks, and make life more affordable for Tennessee families,” Van Epps said.
Trump, meanwhile, had attacked Behn on Monday as a “radical left lunatic” who “doesn’t like country music — which, for Nashville, isn’t ideal.”
Behn, a Democratic state representative first elected in a 2023 special race, dismissed Trump’s characterization in an interview with CNN. She clarified that her comments about Nashville and country music were criticisms of the city’s overwhelming tourism, not cultural dislike.
“It’s not radical to spend my career trying to make health care affordable or groceries cheaper,” she said.
Top Democrats—including Al Gore and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez—joined a tele-rally for Behn on Monday night.
Gore, who once represented Tennessee in both the House and Senate, said, “Having had the privilege of representing Tennessee, I can tell you: I’ve never seen political tides shift as far and as fast as they’re shifting in this election.”
Once Van Epps is sworn in, the House GOP majority will stand at 220–213. Speaker Johnson’s narrow margin will tighten again when Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene resigns in January. Democrats are also favored to win two additional special elections early next year, one in Texas following Rep. Sylvester Turner’s death and another in New Jersey after Governor-elect Mikie Sherrill’s resignation.
Still, Republican strategist and CNN commentator David Urban brushed off concerns about Behn’s strong showing.
“It was an off-year special election,” he said. “We’ll learn from it. But we got a big W.”
