Duncan Barkes (L) warns that March 2026 could be a worrying time for Labour (Image: Getty Images)
There are sleepless nights ahead for our leading politicians as they head off for their festive break on Thursday as they know that one event next year will either boost or destroy their political ambitions. The only date that really matters in 2026 is May 7 when the English local elections take place, along with the Scottish Parliament election and the Senedd election in Wales. This will be a day of political reckoning for all the major parties.
To say the stakes are high would be a gross understatement. Results from these elections could well see a change of Prime Minister and Chancellor, a challenge to the role of Leader of the Opposition and a reality-check for other political parties desperately aiming to make gains and to reinforce their narratives that they have the solutions to the country’s problems.
The Labour government has been chaotic and embarrassing in equal measure since gaining power. Sir Keir Starmer has presided over so many U-turns that even the fanciest of Sat-Navs would be confused. He has squandered a whopping parliamentary majority and remains in hock to his rabid backbenchers who seem hell-bent on pursuing the most unrealistic of demands at a time when our economy is barely active and our levels of debt and borrowing are eye-wateringly high.
Rachel Reeves, his partner in crime, has proved that she does not possess the basic requirements to be a Chancellor with an economic vision that can be successfully implemented. This observation is not based on sexism or mansplaining as she might like to claim.
Her woeful record speaks for itself and includes creating uncertainty on the run-up to the Budget with ill-judged announcements, along with placing additional costs on private businesses that has seen owners and entrepreneurs understandably give up.
As Labour struggle in the polls and the Prime Minister now carries the mantle of being the worst PM on record, a poor run of election results for Labour will see MPs and activists clamouring for a new leader and Chancellor. Sir Keir will be praying for a miracle in the first half of next year.
Do not be surprised if you see Angela Rayner or Wes Streeting out shopping for a new wardrobe of clothes as they both smell blood and will be chewing over the election results in the hope it gives them enough ammunition to mount a leadership bid and replace Starmer.
Tory leader Kemi Badenoch also knows only too well how much May’s results could determine whether she is replaced. Her barnstorming speech at the Conservative Party conference in Manchester, along with her recent performances at Prime Minister’s Questions, has silenced many of her critics.
Kemi’s excellent response to Rachel Reeves after the Budget was one of the best political moments of 2025. We saw a party leader who oozed confidence and humour. But while such performances might delight those of us who enjoy political discourse, will she have done enough by May not to endure a drubbing at the ballot box?
And will voters have moved on from the fourteen years of Conservative government that ultimately saw Starmer and Co get into Downing Street? Kemi will be hoping that attitudes will have changed by May.
Reform UK’s Nigel Farage is also aware how important these elections are and will be hoping for a serious breakthrough in Wales and Scotland. Current polling suggests that Reform UK should do well, but it will be interesting to see come the day of voting whether allegations of unsavoury comments he made during his schooldays or his association with Reform’s former Welsh leader Nathan Gill, jailed last month for receiving Russian bribes will damage Reform’s potential electoral success.
The wheels of the Reform juggernaut need to continue to spin at speed so he can give the established political parties the bloody nose that they deserve.
Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey will simply be wishing that voters still remember who he is as his party seem to have achieved little since gaining a record number of MPs in 2024. While Zack Polanski, the recently-crowned leader of the Green Party, will no doubt be using the power of his mind to turn his bluster and rhetoric into something tangible at the ballot box.
The elections on May 7 will function as the first real test of the public’s view of our political leaders and their various offerings since the general election in July 2024. There is a lot to lose and much to gain, but political predictions are a fool’s game.
In the current febrile climate, anything could happen – and our political leaders know this only far too well.
