Is Andy Burnham about to put Rachel Reeves in charge of the UK’s defence budget?

Westminster is becalmed today before the drama of Sir Keir Starmer leaving 10 Downing Street tomorrow, to be replaced by Andy Burnham as our seventh Prime Minister in 10 years.

It will be a day of symbolism – from Sir Keir and Mr Burnham heading to Buckingham Palace to meet the King for the handover of power, to speculation on how Mr Burnham will do things differently in front of the world’s cameras.

 

Reports today said he may not wear a jacket and tie tomorrow. And I have been told he may dispense with the traditional lectern for his first speech outside 10 Downing Street. His team told me: “Wait and see.”

Some things never change though, as after the speeches tomorrow afternoon attention will soon turn to who will be appointed to Mr Burnham’s top team.

From what I am hearing, it sounds like Lord Hermer, Steve Reed, Liz Kendall, Emma Reynolds and Peter Kyle are among those leaving Government.

They will be told first tomorrow afternoon in private. Then the appointments start.

My best guesses are Shabana Mahmood (Chancellor), Lucy Powell (Deputy Prime Minister and Local Government), Louise Haigh (Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster), Angela Rayner (Health), Jonathan Reynolds (Business), Anneliese Midgley (Chief Whip) and Pat McFadden (staying at Work and Pensions).

All could march up Downing Street to hear about their new jobs.

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Among other moves, I wonder whether Wes Streeting is off to the Home Office.

There might also be moves for the Miliband brothers, with Ed off to Foreign and his brother David back into the heart of Government from his role working for an aid charity in New York.

It’s not clear what is happening to David Lammy or Rachel Reeves. One idea I have picked up – why not put Reeves in defence?

After all, the role of Defence Secretary is increasingly about spending public money efficiently and not wasting it.

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And Ms Reeves, as a former Chancellor herself, can lobby for or identify savings to close the £5billion black hole in the £15billion Defence Investment Plan.

She has shown a noticeable interest in the defence brief in recent weeks, notably briefing Lobby and defence journalists on the DIP when they went to the Nato summit in Ankara with Sir Keir Starmer.

Ms Reeves was also at the public unveiling of the DIP with Starmer and Defence Secretary Dan Jarvis.

Perhaps as importantly, a move from the Treasury to Defence would not be seen as a major demotion for her.

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There you go. All of this could change radically when the reshuffle starts.

It only takes one or two Cabinet ministers (Miliband? Reeves?) to refuse to move, and all of these carefully crafted plans come crashing down.

We will know soon enough tomorrow.

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