Andy Burnham has been warned he will enter No10 with the weakest polling position of any Prime Minister to take office midway through a parliament.
Speaking to GB News, polling guru Sir John Curtice said that the former Manchester Mayor faced a “very difficult situation” despite Labour receiving a modest boost following Sir Keir Starmer’s resignation.
Britain’s leading pollster said Labour had enjoyed a brief bounce after the change in leadership, but remained on historically low levels of support.
“They’re averaging about 21 per cent,” Sir John said.
“That is the lowest share of the vote that anybody who’s come and taken over as Prime Minister in the middle of a parliament has ever inherited.”
By comparison, Sir John noted that Rishi Sunak inherited a polling average of 23 per cent when he entered Downing Street in 2022, while Boris Johnson took over the Conservatives on 25 per cent in 2019.
Although Labour’s polling has improved slightly since Sir Keir announced his resignation, Sir John said Mr Burnham was still entering No10 in a “very difficult situation”.
“Labour has indeed already enjoyed a bit of a bounce with the resignation of Keir Starmer,” he said.
Andy Burnham is still facing a very difficult situation.”
However, the polling guru suggested Mr Burnham could receive a further honeymoon boost, noting that parties changing leaders during a parliament often enjoy a short-term rise in support.
“Don’t be surprised if there is a further bounce,” he said.
“The truth is, when a party changes its leader in the middle of a parliament, it does tend to get a short-term bounce.”
Sir John cautioned that some polling suggested Labour’s recovery may already have peaked.
“You can certainly see why Andy Burnham isn’t going to rush into a general election,” he added.
“The Labour Party would not be maintaining the dominant position in the House of Commons that Mr Burnham is inheriting from Sir Keir Starmer.”
The pollster also pointed to signs of recovery for the Conservatives under Kemi Badenoch, although he stressed the party remained well below the level needed to be competitive.
“The Conservatives are now at 20 per cent. It’s the first time they’ve been averaging at that level for quite some considerable time.”
Sir John said that the Conservatives appeared to be benefiting from a decline in support for Reform UK, with fewer 2024 Tory voters now defecting to Nigel Farage’s party.
“There are some signs of recovery for the Conservatives,” the polling guru noted.
“But remember, it’s still only 20 per cent. They’ve still got a very, very long way to go.”
