Andy Burnham, a Westminster wannabe who soon hopes to contest his third Labour leadership race, is being mobbed by southern supporters as he plots his path to No10.
Labour MPs and activists have been bussed up to Makerfield in their droves, flooding the streets of the Brexit-backing seat being eyed up by Reform UK.
“I don’t think it’s an over-exaggeration from a Labour perspective to say it feels like the whole future of society hinges on the result of this by-election,” a Labour source told GB News.
While a fanfare frenzy engulfs one corner of Greater Manchester, Labour is standing down its troops ahead of two other pivotal by-election contests this month.
Voters in Aberdeen South and Arbroath & Broughty Ferry will go to the polls on June 18, the day Makerfield will become the centre of Labour’s civil war.
By-elections were triggered after Scottish National Party stalwarts Stephen Flynn and Stephen Gethins secured seats in Holyrood month, with the former being tipped to launch his own bid to become Scotland’s first minister.
Sir Keir Starmer, who led Labour to its best general election performance in Scotland since Gordon Brown, fell agonisingly short of ending their stints in the House of Commons just two years earlier.
Labour surged in Aberdeen South from fourth to second, ending up just 3,758 votes behind Mr Flynn in 2024 and leaving the North East seat in reach to return its first Labour MP since 2010.
Meanwhile, a collapse in support for the SNP and Conservatives propelled Labour to a knife-edge second-place finish in Arbroath & Broughty Ferry, with Cheryl-Ann Cruickshank missing out on taking the seat by just 859 votes.
“A week is a long time in politics,” Labour’s titanic Prime Minister Harold Wilson once said.
However, for Scottish Labour, two years is enough time to return to the wilderness.
While Anas Sarwar was eyeing up Bute House in 2024, Scottish Labour slumped to end level with Reform UK on May 7, haemorrhaging votes in Aberdeen and Arbroath.
And now Sir Keir’s Labour Party has all but forgotten the two by-elections on June 18.
“I don’t even know who our candidates are,” a senior Labour source told the People’s Channel.
Another Westminster Labour insider admitted: “We haven’t sent a soul.”
While Scottish Labour MPs have been keeping an eye on the by-election battles north of the Border, there is a sense even they have Makerfield on their minds.
“Scottish MPs should be trying to balance both,” one Scottish Labour MP told Britain’s News Channel.
Reform UK leader Nigel Farage also considers Makerfield the “biggest by-election in half a century”, but Kemi Badenoch’s Tories see Aberdeen South as a different beast altogether.
Despite the Conservatives being widely expected to lose their deposit in Makerfield, Aberdeen South is yet another test of the so-called Tory comeback following the party’s disastrous 2024 general election showing.
“Voters in Aberdeen South can turn this by-election into a referendum on the future of the North Sea oil and gas industry,” Mrs Badenoch said last month.
The Leader of the Opposition is now describing it as “utter madness” not to drill for liquid gold.
Experts believe sourcing oil domestically could support 200,000 jobs, add billions to the Treasury’s coffers and remove Vladimir Putin’s mitts from interfering with the nation’s energy security.
However, Energy Secretary Ed Miliband’s pursuit of Net Zero is making Labour a far from popular force in North East Scotland – with the former Leader of the Opposition blocking new licences and opposing the Jackdaw gas and condensate project.
Russell Borthwick, Chief Executive of Aberdeen & Grampian Chamber of Commerce, told GB News: “It’s a purely ideological commitment to net zero. It’s part of this country’s death wish: outsourcing, not offshoring.”
He added: “They said they wouldn’t let this happen to the industry. So, they’re either sleepwalking into it or doing it eyes wide open.”
Tory sources on the ground have told the People’s Channel the issue of oil and gas continuously comes up on the doorsteps, with canvassers reporting it being mentioned by around one in three voters.
“On all the doorsteps, a lot of people are telling us that this is the right thing, people have asked me to save the city, they feel that Aberdeen is dying,” Mrs Badenoch said.
Scottish Conservative candidate and current MSP Douglas Lumsden also told GB News: “Labour and the SNP’s reckless opposition to new oil and gas licences in the North Sea is costing jobs and killing investment, and voters in Aberdeen South can turn this by-election into a referendum on the future of this crucial industry.”
Shadow Scottish Secretary Andrew Bowie added: “This by-election is a straight fight between the Scottish Conservatives and the SNP.
“Pro-UK voters need to unite behind Douglas Lumsden as the only candidate who can beat the SNP so that we can send a message to Ed Miliband that we need to get Britain drilling again.”
However, Reform UK is also setting its sights on flipping Aberdeen South after last month’s strong performance in Holyrood.
“Reform UK has consistently spoken up for oil and gas,” newly-elected MSP Duncan Massey told Britain’s News Channel.
“The Conservatives and the SNP have had some sort of conversion on the policy.”
While many will see just a cigarette paper separating Reform UK and the Tories on the North Sea – with both supporting new licences and backing Jackdaw – Mr Farage’s party accuses the Conservatives of failing in power after backing “net stupid zero”.
Reform UK MSP Jamie Langan added: “Only three Tory MSPs turned up to the debate in Holyrood last week. That says a lot.
“It would be worth noting we outpolled them in Scotland and consistently across the United Kingdom. We are now competitive in all areas in Scotland.”
However, a local oil insider suggested Reform UK’s “Trumpian approach” went further than many expected, relying on a finite amount of resources by dismissing the opportunities of renewable energy.
The Tory strategy – known as the Cheap Power Plan – combines North Sea drilling while maintaining some renewable elements, albeit without legacy subsidies.
Mr Farage’s party was also dealt a major blow earlier in the campaign after ex-Tory MP Ross Thomson fired a parting shot when he announced he was quitting Reform UK.
“Reform UK are not seriously targeting Aberdeen South in this by-election, with their resources and attention focused almost entirely on Makerfield,” the defector-turned-quitter wrote.
“That is deeply disappointing given the national importance of this by-election and what it means for the future of the North Sea oil and gas industry.”
Mr Thomson, who served as the Conservative MP for Aberdeen South between 2017 and 2019, is now backing Mr Lumsden.
However, Reform UK claims Mr Thomson failed the vetting process while seeking to contest an Aberdeenshire Council by-election on July 2.
Mr Thomson is now standing in Peterhead as an independent candidate.
A Scottish Reform source also appeared to challenge Mr Thomson’s claim. “We have lots of national resources going down south, but there’s a really good effort going into Aberdeen South, too,” they said.
But Reform UK’s row with Mr Thomson merely continues the realignment of the Right in British politics.
Tory peer and pollster Lord Hayward told GB News: “Politics is already fragmented across the UK, but a Reform victory in Makerfield and a good Tory performance in Aberdeen, particularly if it’s a Tory victory, would indicate Britain is in multi-party politics for the long run.”
He added: “An improvement in Aberdeen South, along with Arbroath, would be a real boost for the Tories and would weaken Reform in a part of the country where they are less strong.
“One or two by-elections only influence morale in the short term, but it is what the Tories in Scotland need.”
Yet Lord Hayward suggested the Conservatives should treat Labour’s “forgotten by-election” with caution.
“All the ‘Westminster’ attention seems to be on Makerfield and the future of the Prime Minister but Aberdeen South in particular is interesting,” he said.
“With current debates on net zero and opposition to oil drilling within the Government, the Conservatives and Kemi are trying to drive home a policy difference and gain traction in an oil-dependent area.
“The SNP did not have a good time in 2024, so Tory prospects need to be viewed with caution, but they have the momentum.”
Reform UK’s Deputy Leader Richard Tice made the trip up to the Granite City earlier this week, with insiders suggesting visits by big beasts prove how “buoyant” the party is about its chances.
Despite Reform UK hoping to snatch Aberdeen South from under Tory noses, the SNP is continuing to position itself as the pre-eminent anti-Farage force north of the border.
Polling suggests progressive parties could cannibalise support by positioning themselves as an anti-Reform force.
Plaid Cymru demonstrated its ability to hoover up disaffected Labour voters and parts of the electorate wary of Mr Farage, ending a century-long red grip while keeping Reform UK out of power.
The SNP is pushing out a similar message in Aberdeen South. “Aberdeen South is a tight battle between the SNP, the Tories and Reform, so while of course there is focus on Makerfield, there is a huge statement to be made by any party that wins a seat in the energy capital of Europe,” a source told the People’s Channel.
“Nigel Farage has been up to the city in recent weeks, and we would fully expect him to be up again despite his plans being hugely damaging to energy jobs.
“Obviously, Scottish voters gave Labour a drubbing only a few weeks ago, but many are seeing these two Scottish by-elections as a bonus chance to beat the Tories and Reform.”
However, it has not been plain sailing for the SNP in recent weeks either.
Peter Murrell, the estranged husband of former first minister Nicola Sturgeon, was found guilty of embezzling £400,000 from the SNP, spending £124,550 on a luxury camper van.
The Tories have tried to force an inquiry into the SNP’s scandal, with Mr Bowie pressuring Westminster’s Scottish Affairs Committee to launch a fresh investigation.
Meanwhile, a Scottish Reform source claimed the embezzlement debacle was starting to cut through on the doorsteps.
“It’s definitely an issue,” they told Britain’s News Channel. “It’s been going on for a few years. This is just another chapter. It’s led to distrust in the SNP, a sleaze factor compounded by their failure in power.”
However, ex-SNP MP Neale Hanvey believes the scandal will have little impact on the party’s chances.
“Scottish independence supporters seem impervious to scandal despite the best efforts of those of us raising the alarm,” Mr Hanvey said.
“Ultimately, the SNP is helped considerably by the shambles that is Starmerism, which is effectively cluelessness, and the continued ‘far-right’ attacks on Reform and the Tories.
“The laugh is, despite their right-wing positions, neither the Tories nor Reform are anywhere near as authoritarian as the SNP or Scottish Green Party.”
While it remains to be seen whether the SNP scandal will have an impact, the parties vying to win in Aberdeen South have all accused Labour of opting to pump resources into Makerfield instead.
An SNP source told GB News: “The reason they are shunning Scottish by-elections is because, at the end of the day, protecting and recreating Westminster careers for the likes of Andy Burnham is a priority over the needs and wishes of Scotland.
“We have seen that with a UK Labour Government denying the wishes of Scotland’s national Parliament a say over our own future when it comes to independence.”
“Labour won’t pay any attention at all,” a Tory insider who ventured up to Scotland added.
A Reform source also told the People’s Channel: “Makerfield is attracting Labour’s focus, but we are getting a hell of a lot of support in Aberdeen and Arbroath. We are really going for it.”
Britain’s News Channel has approached Scottish Labour for comment.
