BoE predicted to cut rates amid job crisis (Image: Getty)
Britain is battling an unemployment crisis which could lead to the Bank of England slashing interest rates even more, according to a Swiss lender. Lombard Odier has predicted that the United Kingdom’s Central Bank will bring rates down to 2.75% from 3.75% later this year, after the summer, in what would bring them back to their lowest level since November 2022.
Any such changes in that direction would benefit mortgage holders and businesses, as the amount of interest they pay on loans would in turn be reduced by the bank’s rate reduction. So far the job market has been gradually getting worse over the course of 2025, with unemployment now hitting more than 5% in the three months leading up to October. The data, from the Office of National Statistics (ONS) comes with a slump in pay growth across the private sector, to now stand at its worst level since 2021.
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Hundreds of thousands of people across the country are now out of work, with 729,000 currently looking for a job. But the news for jobseekers is grim, with openings dropping to 795,000.
Layoffs have hurt the job market, and a weakening market is normally seen as a go ahead for central banks to slash interest rates in an effort to grow the economy.
Bill Papadakis, from the firm, told the Telegraph that senior policymakers would need to make the changes because of a “collapse in job vacancies to below pre-pandemic levels and a rising unemployment rate”.
He added: “Strong wage growth has already slowed meaningfully as the employment picture has weakened.”
“Together with falling services inflation, this should translate into lower price pressures, allowing the Bank of England to cut rates to 2.75pc by the end of the third quarter – a level close to neutral.”
Despite his intervention, the financial markets reportedly indicate that there is only likely to be a change in rates to 3.5% by June.
Experts have warned that fuel duty hikes, and pay-per-mile taxes would increase inflation by a small amount in 2027/28.
Last year, the Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced increases to employers’ National Insurance Contributions, in the midst of wide-spread job cuts across the private sector.
She did so whilst announcing the lifting of the two-child benefit cap which will give thousands to non-working families with numerous children.
Her Autumn Statement, which brought in the changes, was branded a “Benefits Street budget” by critics, including the Conservative Leader, Kemi Badenoch. It caused backlash, as the Labour Party had promised on 52 occasions not to increase taxes on ‘working people’, and the move was widely interpreted as a break of that manifesto commitment.
Ms Reeves said she believed it was the “right thing to do” when she announced the changes, and it was a budget of “fair taxes, strong public services, and a stable economy”.
