Trump Sees Positive Approval, But GOP Struggles with Independents Ahead of 2026 Midterms
Despite President Donald Trump earning a positive approval rating, Republicans are facing a troubling erosion of support from independent voters as the 2026 midterm elections approach, according to a new survey from conservative pollster McLaughlin & Associates.
The poll found Trump with a 50%–46% positive-to-negative approval rating. However, Democrats overtook Republicans for the first time this cycle on the generic congressional ballot, 45% to 44%.
“If Republicans need around 60 million votes in 2026 to retake the House, there are more than enough Trump voters to do it—but as of 2025, the 75 million Harris voters appear more energized,” pollsters John and Jim McLaughlin wrote in a Newsmax piece about their survey. “There is time to change it.”
Trump highlighted his favorable approval rating on Truth Social, though it appears to be an outlier compared to other polls. According to RealClearPolitics’ latest aggregate, Trump maintains a net 11.7-point job disapproval rating, and Democrats hold a 4.8-point lead over Republicans on the generic congressional ballot.
The McLaughlin & Associates poll also pointed to other challenges for the GOP:
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Only 38% of respondents said the country is on the right track, compared with 56% who said it is on the wrong track.
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Confidence in the economy fell, with 49% saying the economy is not in a recession, down from 58% in August.
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Inflation continues to impact voters, with 77% reporting financial strain and 41% struggling to pay bills.
Trump’s marquee legislation of his second term, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (rebranded by the GOP as the Working Families Tax Cut Act), received mixed reactions. Overall, 46% of likely voters support the law versus 43% opposed, but independent voters opposed it 50%–35%.
Democrats currently hold advantages with key demographics: independents (42%–26%), women (50%–38%), and Hispanic voters (48%–36%). Betting markets now suggest Democrats have a 73% chance of taking control of both the House and Senate.
Still, there are some positives for Trump and Republicans. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) holds a 31% favorable to 44% unfavorable rating. A majority of respondents, 63%, favor capitalism over socialism (17%), and 64% support Trump’s “America First” policy goals.
The McLaughlin & Associates poll surveyed 1,000 likely voters from Nov. 17 to 24, with a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points.
